The economic outlook: The biggest threat to global growth is a Chinese slowdown

First on CNN: Next spring the economy will sink into a 1990-style mild recession, Fitch says, after a long and deep-rooted slowdown. But the economic and financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath have sparked a long-overdue rebound, in part because the downturn was so deep and pervasive, experts say. On Bloomberg Television, Martin Wolf argues that the U.S. economic outlook is still negative (see video 1 and 4).

On CNBC (see video 2 and 3), Robert W. Baird says the biggest threat to global growth is “not a recession in China but a Chinese slowdown.”

On Fox Business (see video 3 and 4), Neil H. Buchanan tells me the economy is still “a lot worse than it was” in 2009. And he adds: “When China slows down, that weakens the world, as we’re seeing.”

The big challenge for the stock market, he says, will be to get past the “stabilization” phase: “Now the S&P 500 is moving higher—that’s very good—but I think that’s due to the fact that the market likes the idea of stabilization.”

“I think we’re more than halfway to full employment now (in the U.S. economy),” he says. “I don’t see how you can grow in the United States without reaching full employment.”

The economic outlook: On Bloomberg Television, Martin Wolf says the U.S. economic outlook is still negative, despite a recent surge in economic growth. And he argues the current recession has exposed huge weaknesses in the economy’s finances—and may have even worsened them. “You’re going to see the government run out of money because no one’s going to take your money,” Wolf says.

On CNBC, Robert W. Baird says if China’s economy slows down, the outlook for the world economy and for the U.S. economy is bleak. He adds in a separate interview with my counterpart in Chicago, John Sch

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